tenaciousmuse.blogspot.com
Tenacious Muse: May 2015
http://tenaciousmuse.blogspot.com/2015_05_01_archive.html
Musings and thoughts that just won't go away - so I write them down here. Friday, May 22, 2015. Beating a Dead Horse: The Student Disengagement Myth and Real-Life Impact. Just to poke Mark Bauerline. With a stick one more time:. As my friend Steve Saideman. Pointed out in his response to Bauerline's piece, the argument relies largely on "anecdata" - individual observations (why aren't there students lined up in the hall of the English department at UCLA? 8226; At a subsequent retirement dinner, three rec...
tenaciousmuse.blogspot.com
Tenacious Muse: March 2015
http://tenaciousmuse.blogspot.com/2015_03_01_archive.html
Musings and thoughts that just won't go away - so I write them down here. Monday, March 23, 2015. The Challenge of Scientific 'Controversies'. I wrote a little over a month ago about the use of the term "research". In public arguments over science. I argued at the time, and still maintain, that people often claim to have done "research" when what they really mean is that they have (very selectively) read other people's research. Of course, many of those who try to stir up "controversy" on scientific subj...
predictiveheuristics.com
The right kind of variance | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/10/06/the-right-kind-of-variance
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 6, 2014. The right kind of variance. Or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. The reason for this is obvious when you consider the underlying variance structure. First, to predict something that changes, say dissident-government conflict. The nature of relationships between political parties. You need predictors that change. In fact, with enough data, you are bound to find some correlations purely due to chance. So sometimes it’s good to have co...Coding ...
predictiveheuristics.com
Games on networks, with application to Thai politics | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/10/19/games-on-networks-with-application-to-thai-politics
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 19, 2013. Games on networks, with application to Thai politics. The top rug shows the different parties that are in power in Thailand during the observation period, with markers for changes in power. The bottom plot shows conflictual events in Thailand from 1998 on. Six dead in shootout in Thai south. Thailand begins monitoring of Facebook, YouTube and LINE. Next post →. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Here are our members.
predictiveheuristics.com
Prediction versus Explanation? | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/10/31/prediction-versus-explanation
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 31, 2013. Is an early warning system designed to help US policy analysts predict a variety of international crises. This project was created at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in 2007. Gated) described the early phase of the project in 2010, including assessments of its accuracy, and a WIRED article in 2011 criticized ICEWS. For missing the Arab Spring–at a time when the project was only focused on Asia. In an article ( here for now. In Foreign Policy,.
predictiveheuristics.com
Political Parties, the Eurozone Crisis, and ICEWS Data | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/01/16/political-parties-the-eurozone-crisis-and-icews-data
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. January 16, 2014. Political Parties, the Eurozone Crisis, and ICEWS Data. Large-scale event data based on worldwide media reports already help us to explain and forecast crises events. Such as civil wars or insurgencies. But the millions of data points provided by ICEWS or GDELT. Are a treasure trove for social scientists interested in all kinds of topics, whether they involve violence or not. And the Comparative Manifestos Project. I use the ICEWS event data to analyze the way...
predictiveheuristics.com
cassyld | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/author/cassyld
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. Civilian Victimization and Social Networks. September 9, 2014. This question eventually led me to co-organize a national survey in Mexico in July 2012, with my colleague Sandra Ley Gutierrez, focusing on the consequences of criminal victimization. In this survey, I collected original data on 1,000 kinship networks as a way to capture social networks at the individual level. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Here are our members.
predictiveheuristics.com
实验室文章:迈向冲突预测的新时代 | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/08/27/实验室文章:迈向冲突预测的新时代
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. August 27, 2014. 为了呈现冲突研究在过去几年的重大进展,本文重新检视Fearon and Laitin (2003)这份奠定冲突研究基础的文献,从而比较和凸显预测分析在近几年的进展。 站在修正Fearon and Laitin的基础上,我们利用年度层次以下的事件时间解析数据来建构冲突预测模型,并且运用层级模型(hierarchical model)来追踪估计变量在不同国家属性群集中的变化。 在左边的红线表示负向的错误预测(false negative),但在右边白色表示正向的错误预测(false positive),一个高配适度的预测应该会有比较多的红色部分 事件发生 在图的右侧。 Next post →. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Which has our conflict forecasts. Here are our members. Good coup, bad coup.
predictiveheuristics.com
Civilian Victimization and Social Networks | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/09/09/civilian-victimization-and-social-networks
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. September 9, 2014. Civilian Victimization and Social Networks. This question eventually led me to co-organize a national survey in Mexico in July 2012, with my colleague Sandra Ley Gutierrez, focusing on the consequences of criminal victimization. In this survey, I collected original data on 1,000 kinship networks as a way to capture social networks at the individual level. Find out more at cassydorff.com. For more information and contact details, please visit cassydorff.com.
tenaciousmuse.blogspot.com
Tenacious Muse: Religious Convictions, Public Behavior, and the Mythical Quest for Purity
http://tenaciousmuse.blogspot.com/2015/07/religious-convictions-public-behavior.html
Musings and thoughts that just won't go away - so I write them down here. Friday, July 10, 2015. Religious Convictions, Public Behavior, and the Mythical Quest for Purity. Just because someone takes a job with the government does not mean they give up their First Amendment rights." A cake baker has apparently also decided to take his case to court. Lest he be sanctioned for discriminating against gay couples in the making of wedding cakes. The 1967 Supreme Court decision which struck down laws outlawing ...
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