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Elections etc

Monday, 14 July 2014. New Elections etc site: ElectionsEtc.com. A former student of mine, Jonathan Jones ( @JJ 159. Has kindly set up a new combined general election forecast page and blog at ElectionsEtc.com. With a twitter account @ElectionsEtc. Please follow those links for future updates and discussion of the forecast. I’m very grateful to Jonathan who suggested the new site, set it up and is managing it all for free in his spare time. I think it is great. I hope you like it. Friday, 4 July 2014.

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Elections etc | electionsetc.blogspot.com Reviews
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Monday, 14 July 2014. New Elections etc site: ElectionsEtc.com. A former student of mine, Jonathan Jones ( @JJ 159. Has kindly set up a new combined general election forecast page and blog at ElectionsEtc.com. With a twitter account @ElectionsEtc. Please follow those links for future updates and discussion of the forecast. I’m very grateful to Jonathan who suggested the new site, set it up and is managing it all for free in his spare time. I think it is great. I hope you like it. Friday, 4 July 2014.
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Elections etc | electionsetc.blogspot.com Reviews

https://electionsetc.blogspot.com

Monday, 14 July 2014. New Elections etc site: ElectionsEtc.com. A former student of mine, Jonathan Jones ( @JJ 159. Has kindly set up a new combined general election forecast page and blog at ElectionsEtc.com. With a twitter account @ElectionsEtc. Please follow those links for future updates and discussion of the forecast. I’m very grateful to Jonathan who suggested the new site, set it up and is managing it all for free in his spare time. I think it is great. I hope you like it. Friday, 4 July 2014.

INTERNAL PAGES

electionsetc.blogspot.com electionsetc.blogspot.com
1

Elections etc: May 2013

http://www.electionsetc.blogspot.com/2013_05_01_archive.html

Thursday, 9 May 2013. Local Elections 2013: UKIP hurt Labour at least as much as the Tories compared with last year. Since the local elections last week discussion in the media has focused mainly on the impact of UKIP success on the Conservatives and how they will react. But compared with last year's local elections Labour suffered at least as much. But there are a number of problems with these observations as a way of looking at the results of this year's local elections. First, UKIP seat gains were...

2

Elections etc: What do the 2014 European and local election results mean for the opinion polls and next year’s general election?

http://www.electionsetc.blogspot.com/2014/05/what-do-2014-european-and-local.html

Monday, 26 May 2014. What do the 2014 European and local election results mean for the opinion polls and next year’s general election? Labour emerged narrowly ahead of the Conservatives in both the local and European Parliament elections. I discussed the implications of the local election results in a previous post. On Friday. The results of the Euros only came through last night. Table 1. Percentage shares of GB vote 2014. Lab lead over Con. PNS: BBC Projected National Share of the vote. The differences...

3

Elections etc: October 2013

http://www.electionsetc.blogspot.com/2013_10_01_archive.html

Friday, 25 October 2013. Initial responses to comments so far on the long-range election forecasting post. Thanks for all the various comments on my initial post about long-range forecasting from historical polls and votes relationship http:/ electionsetc.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/a-long-range-forecast-for-2015-british.html. Pr(Lab majority) = 15% and Pr(Lab largest party) = 12% are not compatible. How can Lab have a bigger chance of a majority than being the largest party? It might take a bit of time to re...

4

Elections etc: Why is the 2015 general election forecast trending?

http://www.electionsetc.blogspot.com/2014/07/why-is-2015-general-election-forecast.html

Friday, 4 July 2014. Why is the 2015 general election forecast trending? A few people have asked me this question about my forecast at http:/ users.ox.ac.uk/ nuff0084/ge15forecast/. The trends are definitely there as you can see from the graphs below. But since they are well within the very broad prediction intervals, there is a danger of reading too much into them. Certainly we are far from having enough information to say the model isn't working well for this electoral cycle. First, then, trends in the...

5

Elections etc: February 2014

http://www.electionsetc.blogspot.com/2014_02_01_archive.html

Monday, 10 February 2014. Revised long-range forecasting method for a 2015 British General Election. I have revised my 2015 forecasting methodology. There is a new working paper here. The old one from October 2013 is still here. And there are past blog posts here. That provide more background. The current forecast is below and will be updated weekly here. Current forecast from the new methodology:. Date of forecast: 10.2.2014. Days till the election: 451. Inputted current average poll shares. Pr(Lab larg...

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Elections etc

Monday, 14 July 2014. New Elections etc site: ElectionsEtc.com. A former student of mine, Jonathan Jones ( @JJ 159. Has kindly set up a new combined general election forecast page and blog at ElectionsEtc.com. With a twitter account @ElectionsEtc. Please follow those links for future updates and discussion of the forecast. I’m very grateful to Jonathan who suggested the new site, set it up and is managing it all for free in his spare time. I think it is great. I hope you like it. Friday, 4 July 2014.

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