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Elections Etc | Forecasting the 2015 UK General ElectionForecasting the 2015 UK General Election
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Elections Etc | Forecasting the 2015 UK General Election | electionsetc.com Reviews
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Forecasting the 2015 UK General Election
electionsetc.com
Parliamentary arithmetic | Elections Etc
http://electionsetc.com/methods/parliamentary-arithmetic
Historical and polls based forecast. The pie chart shows probabilities that particular groups of parties would both have a parliamentary majority and effectively control the government under assumptions listed below. The categories are effectively (but not perfectly) ordered by the number of Labour seats (increasing clockwise from the top) and Conservative seats (increasing anti-clockwise from top). Labour overall majority (323 or more seats). Lab LD DUP SDLP PC Green Hermon:. The Conservatives would not...
macroeconomics | Elections Etc
http://electionsetc.com/tag/macroeconomics
Historical and polls based forecast. The Dysfunctional Debate over Debt, Deficit and Macro Economic Policy. By Stephen Fisher and Zach Ward-Perkins. This blog post counts as work in progress for a more thorough analysis of the issues of political debate and public understanding of macroeconomics. Comments very welcome. There is a big choice. Continue reading The Dysfunctional Debate over Debt, Deficit and Macro Economic Policy. EU referendum Result and Forecasts. RESULT: 48% Remain - 52% Leave.
Latest forecast | Elections Etc
http://electionsetc.com/latest-forecast
Historical and polls based forecast. Date of forecast: 7 May 2015. Days till the election: It’s today! Inputted current average poll shares. Forecast GB Vote Shares. With 95% Prediction Intervals). Con: 35% (31% 39%). Lab: 32% (28% 36%). LD: 10% (7% 14%). UKIP: 12% (8% 16%). Others: 11% (9% 12%). Forecast Scotland Vote Shares. With 95% Prediction Intervals). SNP: 48% (44% 52%). Labour: 27% (23% 31%). With 95% Prediction Intervals). Con: 285 (245 326). Lab: 262 (223 300). LD: 25 (17 33). SNP: 53 (45 57).
How did the Tories win a majority? | Elections Etc
http://electionsetc.com/2015/05/08/how-did-the-tories-win-a-majority
Historical and polls based forecast. How did the Tories win a majority? The election outcome was a shocking defeat for Labour and a remarkable victory for the Tories, both relative to expectations from the opinion polls and considering that you have to go back to Salisbury in 1900 to find an instance of a Prime Minister increasing. Ultimately the main answers are to do with the collapse of Labour in Scotland inadequately compensated for by modest net gains in England and Wales. On a smaller scale the...
What the Scottish Independence Referendum results tell us | Elections Etc
http://electionsetc.com/2014/09/19/what-the-scottish-independence-referendum-results-tell-us
Historical and polls based forecast. What the Scottish Independence Referendum results tell us. Stephen Fisher, 19. Alex Salmond claimed that there were no No votes, just deferred Yes votes. They were deferred too late for the independence cause. But taking that attitude is possibly the best way of explaining the overall No vote in yesterday’s Scottish Independence referendum. The first issue to address is whether they really did come close. The final poll of polls was Yes 48 to No 52. And found that the...
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ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.com
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015: PAST GENERAL & LOCAL ELECTIONS TELEVISUAL COVERAGE
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.com/p/past-general-elections.html
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015. MICRO PARTIES WHO WILL BE FIGHTING THE 2015 GENERAL ELECTION. Opinion polls up to March 2014. 2010 General Election results. MAY 2014 COUNCIL ELECTIONS PAGE. PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE SELECTIONS FOR 2015 UK GENERAL ELECTION. PAST GENERAL and LOCAL ELECTIONS TELEVISUAL COVERAGE. 2014 EUROPEAN ELECTION RESULTS. 2015 UK General Election Forecasts, Predictions and Projections. PAST GENERAL and LOCAL ELECTIONS TELEVISUAL COVERAGE. This again I have to thank ANDYAJS for,. YOUGOV (Own pa...
ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.com
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015: #GE2015 Candidates chosen so far Aberavon to Hull West & Hessle
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.com/2015/03/ge2015-candidates-chosen-so-far.html
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015. MICRO PARTIES WHO WILL BE FIGHTING THE 2015 GENERAL ELECTION. Opinion polls up to March 2014. 2010 General Election results. MAY 2014 COUNCIL ELECTIONS PAGE. PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE SELECTIONS FOR 2015 UK GENERAL ELECTION. PAST GENERAL and LOCAL ELECTIONS TELEVISUAL COVERAGE. 2014 EUROPEAN ELECTION RESULTS. 2015 UK General Election Forecasts, Predictions and Projections. Friday, 6 March 2015. GE2015 Candidates chosen so far Aberavon to Hull West and Hessle. As of 10th April 2015.
nuffieldcollegelibrary.wordpress.com
General Election 2015: resources | Nuffield College Library's blog
https://nuffieldcollegelibrary.wordpress.com/2015/03/31/general-election-2015-resources
Nuffield College Library's blog. Advice on using the library and researching the social sciences. From the archives – G.D.H. Cole and Nuffield College Library. Historical election material and propaganda →. General Election 2015: resources. March 31, 2015. As the race to the 2015 General Election begins in earnest, we have compiled a selection of online resources for keeping up to date with election news, analysis and predictions:. And Donald Stokes in 1964, transformed the study of electoral behaviour i...
Predicting the result: three websites to watch | UK elections 2015
https://ukgeneralelection.com/2014/08/14/predicting-the-result-three-websites-to-watch/comment-page-1
Number-crunching, news-spotting and result-pondering. Predicting the result: three websites to watch. It’s clear we’re going to be spoiled between now and May with the greatest number of polls and forecasts ever published in a British general election campaign. Among all the rogue snapshots and speculation, however, we’re already being blessed with a handful of predictions based less on instinct and trends and more on formulae and calculations. Here are three of them:. Their most recent forecast. Is that...
Generalizations, Just-So Stories and Marriage Law and Doctrine | Scot M. Peterson
https://scotmpeterson.wordpress.com/2014/02/23/generalizations-just-so-stories-and-marriage-law-and-doctrine
Politics, Constitutional Studies and Comparative Government at Oxford. Scot M. Peterson. British Politics and Government, 1900-present. Prelims (First Year Introduction). Laquo; Same-Sex Marriage, National Churches and the Labour Party. A new constitution for the UK? Generalizations, Just-So Stories and Marriage Law and Doctrine. A week ago the House of Bishops of the Church of England issued a pastoral letter. The first same sex marriages in England are expected to take place in March. From then the...
Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog: Evaluating UK Election Predictions
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2015/05/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html
Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog. Science, Innovation, Politics. Evaluating UK Election Predictions. I have a piece up at the Guardian with draws upon and extends this analysis. See it here. Back in March, I posted up a survey. Here are the forecasts that I am evaluating:. The methodology is a very simple one, and one that I have used frequently (e.g., to evaluate predictions of Olympic Medals, the World Cup, the NCAA tournament etc. And is the basis of a chapter in my new book. First, I identified a "naive basel...
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Elections etc
Monday, 14 July 2014. New Elections etc site: ElectionsEtc.com. A former student of mine, Jonathan Jones ( @JJ 159. Has kindly set up a new combined general election forecast page and blog at ElectionsEtc.com. With a twitter account @ElectionsEtc. Please follow those links for future updates and discussion of the forecast. I’m very grateful to Jonathan who suggested the new site, set it up and is managing it all for free in his spare time. I think it is great. I hope you like it. Friday, 4 July 2014.
Elections Etc | Forecasting the 2015 UK General Election
How did the Tories win a majority? Stephen Fisher, 8th May 2015. The election outcome was a shocking defeat for Labour and a remarkable victory for the Tories, both relative to expectations from the opinion polls and considering that you have to go back to Salisbury in 1900 to find an instance of a Prime Minister increasing. Ultimately the main answers are to do with the collapse of Labour in Scotland inadequately compensated for by modest net gains in England and Wales. On a smaller scale the Conser...
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